[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 12 issued 2350 UT on 08 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 9 09:50:24 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for 08-Aug, with several C-class
flares mostly from AR 1540 and AR 1542. Expect the same for 9-Aug
with a slight chance of a M-class flare. Glancing blow from CME
associated with a long-duration C-class flare on 04-Aug had minimal
effect on the near Earth environment. Noted erupting filament
in the central south west quadrant at 08-Aug/0200UT. Expect associated
CME to be weakly geoeffective. For 8-Aug the IMF Bz was mostly
northward till about 1500UT and turned southward, mainly less
than -3nT. The solar wind is at normal levels and is expected
to remain at that level for the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 31121211
Darwin 6 32121212
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 6 -2222221
Norfolk Island 4 31111110
Camden 5 31121211
Canberra 3 21121200
Hobart 5 31121111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 31141000
Casey 10 34231221
Mawson 17 53312234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3012 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Aug 6 Quiet
11 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet to Unsettled with
a short period of Active levels early in the UT day at high latitudes.
Expect Quiet to Unsettled Geomagnetic activity for 9-Aug with
isolated cases of Active levels expected at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 65% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal to slightly enhanced 08-Aug
with a depression noted at Cocos Island during local night. Hobart
showed spread F between 11-20UT, local night. Mawson ionograms
had weak traces. Expect similar conditions over the UT day, 09-Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 75200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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