[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 12 issued 2348 UT on 09 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 10 09:48:24 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for 09-Aug, with several C-class
flares mostly from AR 1542 and new AR1544 to the SE of the spot
conglomerate AR1538/39/41/42. Expect similar for 9-Aug with <20%
chance of M-class flares. Two small CMEs from the filament on
the western side are predicted to barely glance the Earth on
12th Aug at the same time a coronal hole high-speed wind stream
becomes geoeffective. The largest flare, C8 from AR1542 did not
appear to have the type II radio burst signature associated with
a CME even though it was of substantial duration ~1 hour. AR1542
is also well east of the usual CME geoeffective zone at present.
IMF Bz was mildly southward till about 1500UT, slightly below
the threshold for effective geomagnetic merging, and then turned
northward. The solar wind speed is in the normal/low 350-300
km/s range, declining during the day and turbulent until the
Bz northward turning at 15UT when a density and temperature drop
also occurred.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 22110111
Darwin 3 22110111
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 22121111
Norfolk Island 2 22110010
Camden 2 12110001
Canberra 1 12010000
Hobart 2 11120000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 11221000
Casey 3 22111010
Mawson 11 53311110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 11 5122 1312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 6 Quiet
11 Aug 6 Quiet
12 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet at mid and low
latitudes. Unsettled near the auroral zone early in the UT day
due to mild Bz southward and turbulent solar wind. Expect Quiet
Geomagnetic activity for 10-11 Aug with isolated Unsettled-Active
levels at high latitudes if Bz southward >-5nT for >6 hours.
Two small CMEs from the filament on the western side are predicted
to barely glance the Earth on 12th Aug at the same time a coronal
hole high-speed wind stream becomes geoeffective, probably causing
Unsettled conditions at low-mid latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 85 0 to 10% below predicted monthly values
11 Aug 85 0 to 10% below predicted monthly values
12 Aug 85 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal with some nighttime depressions
at low latitudes in the north due to prevailing neutral wind
and electric field conditions in the equatorial anomaly. Expect
similar conditions for 10-11 August. A high speed solar wind
stream from a coronal hole should be effective 12 Aug, causing
Unsettled geomagnetic conditions, translating to slightly more
suppressed MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 94100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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