[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 12 issued 2345 UT on 07 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 8 09:45:25 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for 07-Aug, with C-class flares
mostly from AR 1542 which still holds M-flare potential. Expect
Moderate solar activity 08-Aug. The CME associated with a long-duration
C-class flare on 04-Aug from the filament east of the central
meridian is expected to have a glancing impact early UT on 08-Aug.
The filament has rotated to a geoeffective position and retains
CME potential. IMF Bz was largely southward during the UT day,
facilitating merging with the geomagnetic field, and trending
towards -10nT near 24UT, strengthening the merging. Solar wind
has been steady near 400km/s for the last 24h.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 21121112
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 6 22121222
Norfolk Island 3 21120011
Camden 4 21121112
Canberra 3 11120012
Hobart 3 20120012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 10130001
Casey 7 23311122
Mawson 24 42223165
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2323 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 18 Unsettled to Active
09 Aug 6 Quiet
10 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the Australian region
during 07-Aug. Conditions near the auroral oval were occasionally
Unsettled to Active due to long periods of merging with the southward
interplanetary magnetic field. Geomagnetic activity at mid and
low latitudes are expected to be Unsettled to Active on 8 Aug
due a glancing blow from a CME early in the UT day. High latitudes
should experience Active to Minor Storm levels. The CME effectiveness
will depend on the north or south polarity of it's initial magnetic
field, southwards being more geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 70 0 to 10% below predicted monthly values
09 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal 07-Aug, with MUFs mostly near
monthly values at mid-latitudes and more variable at low-latitudes
with night depressions in northern Australia. The most southern
Australian latitudes experienced strong nightime spread-F conditions,
measured at Hobart, causing HF multipath fading. The ionosphere
is stronger than average and T index is higher than the predicted
monthly value due to a large number of smaller sunspots emitting
ionising EUV. Early UT day 8 Aug a CME should strike a glancing
blow causing Unsettled-Active geomagnetic conditions, slightly
depressing MUFs, with recovery on the 9th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 57400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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