[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 12 issued 2347 UT on 02 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 3 09:47:40 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed during
2 August. Predominantly C-class flare activity is expected for
3 August with the small chance of isolated M-class flares. CME
activity observed during 2 August is not expected to be geoeffective.
The anticipated weak arrival of a CME during 2 August was slightly
more geoeffective than anticipated. A weak transient was observed
in some solar wind parameters following which wind speeds increased
slowly from approximately 400 km/s to 500 km/s. The IMF Bz component
turned southward for several hours reaching values less than -10 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 21023322
Darwin 12 21124423
Townsville 13 22224423
Learmonth 14 22034433
Norfolk Island 7 21023321
Camden 7 11023322
Canberra 7 11023322
Hobart 5 10013321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
Macquarie Island 11 00005422
Casey 8 22213223
Mawson 21 21113356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Aug 6 Quiet
05 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled for the
Australian region during 2 August with some stations reaching
Active levels as the result of the anticipated weak arrival of
a CME. Minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes during
2 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet
for the next few days with the chance of Unsettled levels for
3 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal for 2 August and are
expected to be mostly Normal for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during local daylight
hours for 2 August with mild depression during local night predominantly
for northern regions. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 92700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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