[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 12 issued 2346 UT on 01 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 2 09:46:55 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: C-class flare activity was observed from a number of
solar regions during 1 August. Recent CME activity is not expected
to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds remained below 450 km/s
during 1 August and are presently approximately 400 km/s. The
IMF Bz component fluctuated between +5 and -5 nT during 1 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 4 22101112
Townsville 6 12222122
Learmonth 5 22112112
Norfolk Island 2 21011011
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 1 01111001
Hobart 3 11121011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 01021000
Casey 6 23221112
Mawson 22 43323316
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2211 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug 6 Quiet
04 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet during 1 August and is
expected to be mostly Quiet for the next few days with the very
small chance of isolated Active levels on 2 August due to the
anticipated impact of a weak CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal-Fair for 1 August and
are expected to be mostly Normal for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during local daylight
hours for 1 August with mild depression during local night. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 90100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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