[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 12 issued 2340 UT on 03 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 4 09:40:37 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed during
3 August. Predominantly C-class flare activity is expected for
4 August with the small chance of isolated M-class flares. CME
activity observed during 3 August is not expected to be geoeffective.
Solar wind speeds declined slowly during 3 August from approximately
500 km/s down to approximately 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component
fluctuated between +5 and -5 nT during 3 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 23210111
Darwin 5 23210102
Townsville 8 23321221
Learmonth 6 23221211
Norfolk Island 3 22210110
Camden 4 23210101
Canberra 4 23210100
Hobart 4 23210101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 13220000
Casey 7 33221111
Mawson 22 54532214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 17 1002 5543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 6 Quiet
05 Aug 5 Quiet
06 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled for the
Australian region during 3 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly Quiet for the next few days with the chance of isolated
Unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal for 3 August and are
expected to be mostly Normal for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during 3 August. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 76400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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