[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 12 issued 2332 UT on 18 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 19 09:33:00 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with several C class flares,
the most significant being a C8 at 1239UT and a C5 at 1706UT
with an associated Type II radio burst with an estimated shock
speed of 620 km/s . These flares all originated from region 11463(S26W36)
a new region which has appeared and evolved rapidly and continues
to grow at time of writing. SOHO/LASCO and STEREO A/B imagery
is largely unavailable at the required times to characterise
in detail any resulting CMEs. On presently available data no
significant CMEs with geoeffective potential are seen. Further
analysis will be given in tomorrow's report when more data should
be available. The solar wind speed ranged between 380-480 km/s
with the IMF Bz component fluctuating between +/- 5nT until around
10UT when the fluctuations reduced to around +/- 2nT. Solar activity
is expected to be low to moderate over the next 3 days. Region
11463 is still evolving and may become a region with M class
flare potential. Other regions on the disc seems mostly stable
at present.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 23212211
Darwin 6 23221211
Townsville 9 33322221
Learmonth 8 33222212
Norfolk Island 5 22211211
Camden 6 23312110
Canberra 2 12201100
Hobart 6 23212211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
Macquarie Island 10 23224310
Casey 8 33321111
Mawson 30 54431346
Davis 17 33432251
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1032 3243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 5 Quiet
20 Apr 5 Quiet
21 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were largely Unsettled till around
16UT after which conditions have been Quiet. Quiet conditions
are expected to prevail over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally enhanced above predicted monthly
values between around 04-08UT in northern and equatorial regions.
This was followed by night time depressions of up to 20%. MUFs
were generally around predicted monthly values for central and
southern regions. MUFs are expected to be around predicted monthly
values for the remainder of the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 47700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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