[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 12 issued 2330 UT on 19 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 20 09:30:22 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low. The most significant flare
was a C7 at 1126UT with associated Type II and Type IV radio
bursts. SDO AIA131 images indicate the most likely region responsible
is around the western limb on the northern hemisphere. A small
brightening can also be seen in region 11462(S24W31) at the same
time which is a more likely origin for the radio bursts seen.
No Earth directed CME appears to have originated from this event.
A C1 flare, peaking at 1515UT, was observed from region 11463(S26W36).
LASCO imagery is currently unavailable, however STEREO-A coronagraph
images show a CME with a possible Earth directed component in
association with this event. If this event appears to be geoeffective
once SOHO images are available for analysis then further information
will be given in tomorrow's report. The solar wind speed decayed
from around 450 to 340 Km/s over the day. The IMF Bz component
has ranged between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate over the next 3 days with some chance of isolated
M class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11001022
Darwin 3 22000022
Townsville 6 22111132
Learmonth 4 21111122
Norfolk Island 2 11000021
Camden 2 01001022
Canberra 0 00000011
Hobart 3 12101121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00100001
Casey 5 23201112
Mawson 21 42200065
Davis 11 23322124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3320 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 5 Quiet
21 Apr 5 Quiet
22 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been Quiet and these conditions
are expected to persist for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values during
local daytime with depressions of up to 25% seen during local
night. MUFs are expected to be around predicted monthly values
for the remainder of the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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