[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 12 issued 2330 UT on 17 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 18 09:30:07 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with a single long duration
C1 flare from region 11461(N13E66) which has rotated onto the
disc over the last day. This region was most likely the source of
yesterdays M1 flare with associated CME. Today's flare produced a
CME seen in LASCO imagery however it does not appear to be Earth
directed. A further CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery
from around 1500UT and appears to be directed out the western limb
and is also unlikely to be geo-effective. The solar wind speed
increased from around 320 to 420 km/s over the day. The IMF Bz
component fluctuated between +/- 8nT with two periods, between
09-11UT and 14-18UT of sustained southward orientation of greater
then -5nT. Solar flare activity is expected to remain Low for
the next 3 days with some chance of M class flares from region
11459(S15E40) and region 11461.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 11222231
Darwin 7 11222232
Townsville 11 22233332
Learmonth 8 21222332
Norfolk Island 6 11222230
Camden 7 11223231
Canberra 4 00122130
Hobart 10 11233332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
Macquarie Island 13 00224351
Casey 11 23323232
Mawson 17 41232353
Davis 7 2-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2200 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled over
the last day. The Earth is currently in a moderate speed solar
wind stream and the orientation of the IMF has been favourable
for coupling with the geomagnetic field. These solar wind condition
may persist for the next day leading to further unsettled conditions
before returning to ambient conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in equatorial regions were highly variable over
the last day with no sustained depressed periods. In mainland
regions MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with some
mild overnight depressions in Northern Australia. MUFs are expected
to be remain near predicted monthly values for the remainder
of the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 37100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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