[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 12 issued 2355 UT on 10 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 11 10:52:56 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed between 320 and 360 km/s and Bz stayed
mostly between +/-5nT during most parts of the UT day today.
Solar wind stream may get some strength from 11 April due to
the expected effect of a coronal hole and any possible partial
earthward component of the previously observed CME activity.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Darwin 3 --111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22122212
Norfolk_Island 4 21111112
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 0 00010001
Hobart 3 21111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
Macquarie_Island 0 10000001
Casey 6 33210012
Mawson 18 52211145
Davis 7 22222123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 3 1100 0022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 7 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Apr 10 Unsettled
13 Apr 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed on 10 April.
Geomagnetic
activity may show enhancements to Quiet to Unsettled on 11 April,
mostly Unsettled with isolated Active periods on 12 April and
Unsettled to Active on 13 April as a coronal hole is expected
to take a geoeffective position from 11 April. A minor possible
effect from a CME may also cause slight rise in activity on 11
April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions on 11 April and minor to moderate
depressions on 12 and 13 April may be observed mainly on mid
and high latitudes due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 65 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 55 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed at most locations in the
Australian region overnight. Minor MUF depressions on 11 April
and minor to moderate depressions on 12 and 13 April may be possible
due expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 36600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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