[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 12 issued 2357 UT on 09 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 10 09:57:09 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Two C-class
flares were observed today, the largest being a C3.9 event from
region 1451(N17W73). The C3.9 event peaked at 1244UT and was
associated to a Type II radio sweep along with an associated
CME that first appeared in the LASCO imagery at 1325UT. This
CME does not seem to be having any significant earthward component.
Solar wind speed stayed 320 and 360 km/s and Bz stayed mostly
close to the normal value during most parts of the UT day today.
Bz showed some fluctuations (between +/-7nT) after around 1700UT.
Solar wind stream may get some strength from 11 April due to
the expected effect of a coronal hole and any possible partial
earthward component of today's CME. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11100012
Darwin 1 1110001-
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 4 11111122
Norfolk Island 1 11000011
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 3 12110112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 22210122
Mawson 15 31012055
Davis 11 22222144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 5 Quiet
11 Apr 7 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Apr 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions on 10 April and Quiet to Unsettled
on 11 April and Unsettled on 12 April may be expected as a coronal
hole is expected to take a geoeffective position from 11 April.
A minor possible effect from a CME may also cause slight rise
in activity on 11 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
11 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions may be observed mainly on mid
and high latitudes on 11 and 12 April due and expected rise in
geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed at most locations in the
Australian region overnight. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected on 10 April with the possibility of minor depressions
on 11 and 12 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 58800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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