[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 12 issued 2354 UT on 11 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 12 09:54:55 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed between 300 and 360 km/s and Bz stayed
between +/-5nT during most parts of the UT day today.
Solar wind stream may get some strength from 12 April due
to the expected effect of a coronal hole. Solar activity is
expected to stay at very low levels for the next three days.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 11/0920UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 21321012
Darwin 6 22322002
Townsville 7 22322122
Learmonth 7 22322112
Norfolk Island 5 21321011
Camden 4 11321002
Canberra 2 10211001
Hobart 4 12221102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 10120000
Casey 8 33321112
Mawson 11 32222005
Davis 11 2332----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 12 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3220 0113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr 13 Unsettled to Active
14 Apr 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on
11 April. Geomagnetic activity may continue to stay enhanced
at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 12 April, and mostly Unsettled
with some Active periods on 13 April and 14 April as a coronal
hole is becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed from
12 to 14 April, mainly on mid and high latitudes due to expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
13 Apr 60 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 60 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF were mostly normal today with periods of enhancements
at low latitude and some depressions at mid latitude locations.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed from 12 to
14 April especially at mid and high latitudes due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 37500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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