[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 12 issued 2332 UT on 05 Apr 2012

Fri Apr 6 09:32:40 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 101/49

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last day with Region 
1450 (N15W31) producing several small B and C class flares. The 
most recent of these flares, a C1 flare was observed at 2110UT 
with associated TypeII radio burst seen in the Culgoora solar 
spectrograph. The shock speed is estimated at between 470-770 
km/s. The most recent SOHO C2 imagery shows the front edge of 
a CME directed mainly to the north-west, possibly associated 
with this event. This event is not yet well enough characterised 
to determine its geo-effectiveness, however given the flare magnitude 
and shock speed is unlikely to cause a significant geomagnetic 
disturbance. Further information will be given in tomorrows report, 
when more data should be available. The solar wind speed ranged 
between 320-380 km/s. The IMF Bz component was southward by around 
-8nT until around 13UT when it swung northward. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at low levels, with some chance of M-class 
flares from region 1450.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   22444312
      Darwin              13   22344222
      Townsville          15   22344323
      Learmonth           20   22545312
      Norfolk Island      14   32353212
      Camden              17   12454312
      Canberra            10   11443201
      Hobart              20   22554312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    36   23666400
      Casey               10   32333212
      Mawson              27   56343412
      Davis               12   33333312

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2201 1223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr     5    Quiet
08 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Unsettled to Active until 
around 14UT. In the IPS magnetometer data for 05 Apr, a weak 
(14nT) impulse was observed at 0830UT. This activity was caused 
by a sustained period the IMF being favourably aligned to couple 
in with the Earths magnetic field. The field swung to unfavourable 
orientation at around 13UT, shutting off the activity. Conditions 
are expected to by Unsettled for the 6th o April UT due to mild 
CME effects from an eruption observed on the 2nd of April. Quiet 
conditions are expected for the following days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Apr    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Some MUF enhancements were seen early in the UT day, 
particularly at northern and equatorial sites. MUFs then ranged 
near predicted monthly values for the remainder of the day. Some 
depressed periods are possible over the next day due to the geomagnetic 
activity that occurred yesterday, but MUFs are most likely to 
be around predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    32200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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