[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 12 issued 2353 UT on 04 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 5 09:53:47 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with only a C class X-ray
flare from AR1450. AR1450 and 1452 are small but now growing.
AR1452 has some low potential (8/2%) for M/X class X-ray flares.
There is also a long filament connecting AR1450 and 1452 which
if it collapses may produce a CME and the AR pair is now approaching
the most geoeffective position in solar longitude for CME launches.
Solar wind speed was low to average 320-360 km/s for most of
the UT day, but dropped rapidly to only 300km/s at ~22UT coincident
with a rapid IMF Bz southwards change. Bz was north most of the
day but is currently near -10nT which is conducive to strong
merging with the geomagnetic field.
A small northern coronal hole may increase solar wind speed slightly 4th
April.
A weak CME from slightly east of the central meridian, associated with
AR1450, was observed ~0230UT 2 April and appears to have an earthward
directed component although it is predominantly northwards. The
CME may cause a weak geomagnetic disturbance 5th April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 22111322
Darwin 7 22112322
Townsville 9 23212323
Learmonth 9 32112422
Norfolk Island 4 22001222
Camden 5 22011312
Canberra 3 11001212
Hobart 7 22111323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 11002312
Casey 12 33321224
Mawson 20 44211226
Davis 11 33322223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2210 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels with sporadic
Unsettled for the Australian region. Solar wind speed was low
to average for most of the UT day and a couple of abrupt speed
and IMF Bz polarity changes would have driven the Unsettled periods.
Vsw dropped rapidly to only 300km/s at ~22UT coincident with
a rapid IMF Bz southwards change. Bz is currently near -10nT
which is conducive to strong merging with the geomagnetic field.
This will cause an increase in polar geomagnetic activity that
will become more global to Unsettled-Active if Bz persists at
this southwards level for over ~6 hours (past 04UT 5th April).
If Bz returns to normal geomagnetic activity is expected to be
predominantly Quiet over 4th April with occasional Unsettled
levels possible from a small coronal hole wind stream. Unsettled
possible 5 April from the flank of a weak CME launched 2 April
~0230UT from AR1450 near the solar central meridian facing Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Solar wind speed dropped rapidly to only 300km/s at
~22UT 4th April coincident with a rapid IMF Bz southwards change.
Bz is currently near -10nT which is conducive to strong merging
with the geomagnetic field. This will cause an increase in polar
geomagnetic activity and a disturbed polar ionosphere early in the
UT day 5th April. This activity will become more global
if Bz persists at this southwards level for over ~6 hours (past
04UT 5th April) and some moderate (<15%) MUF reductions could
occur.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 70 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
06 Apr 70 0 to 5% below predicted monthly values
07 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly near
predicted monthly values with northern near equatorial sites
showing overnight MUF depressions, possibly from seasonal neutral
winds in the thermosphere near 300km altitude driving the equatorial
fountain, as geomagnetic activity was only Quiet with occasional
Unsettled. MUFs are expected to remain mostly near or slightly
below predicted monthly values for 5-6th April as, sunspot number
on the disc is slightly below the average cycle 24 rise and there
may be some moderate geomagnetic disturbances on those days such
as from a weak CME launched 2 April that may effect a glancing
blow late (UT) on the 5th (early morning 6th AEST).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 32900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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