[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 12 issued 2334 UT on 06 Apr 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 7 09:34:16 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past day with only
B-class flares. Low activity is expected for the next 3 days.
Satellite imagery of the CME associated with the C1 flare observed
at 2110UT on the 5th has become available and suggests possible
glancing blow late on the 8th or early on the 9th of April UT.
The solar wind speed has ranged around ambient levels with mostly
northward Bz IMF.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 21110001
Darwin 3 22100002
Townsville 5 22211112
Learmonth 4 31110-02
Norfolk Island 1 11100001
Camden 5 12330001
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 2 21100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 9 24411011
Mawson 14 32110116
Davis 5 22221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 18 3345 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 7 Quiet
08 Apr 8 Unsettled
09 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the 7th of April with
the chance of some unsettled periods later in the day due to
the expected influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. This
stream is expected to cause unsettled conditions on the 8th.
A possible glancing blow from the CME observed late on the 5th
may strike late on the 8th or early on the 9th, possibly causing
on isolated Active period followed by unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been around predicted monthly values, with
some large enhancements seen at Cocos Island. Conditions are
expected to be near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.
Some variable mildly enhanced and depressed periods are possible
on the 8th and 9th due to some expected mild geomagnetic activity,
however at this stage significant depressed periods are not anticipated.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 35500 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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