[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 28 09:48:19 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity declined to low levels on 27 Sep. A
disappearing solar filament was observed in AR1305 (N13E45) at
0125UT. A C6.4 level flare was observed in AR1302 (N13E10) at
12058UT. Type IV radio bursts and noise continua were observed
throughout the UT day. North- and East-directed CME's were observed
early in the UT day. These are not expected to be geoeffective. Solar
wind speed declined steadily from 650 to 550 km/s. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT. There is a chance of isolated M
to X class flares from AR1302.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 17 43433233
Darwin 17 43432234
Townsville 18 43433234
Learmonth 16 43432233
Alice_Springs 15 33433233
Norfolk_Island 11 33322223
Gnangara 15 43422233
Camden 17 43333234
Canberra 15 43333233
Hobart 18 44433233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
Macquarie_Island 28 44455234
Casey 22 55432233
Davis 22 44534323
Mawson 41 45534337
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 83 (Minor storm)
Townsville 18 (Quiet)
Learmonth 42 (Unsettled)
Alice_Springs 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 155 (Severe storm)
Canberra 113 (Major storm)
Hobart 141 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 20 N/A
Planetary 67
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 10 Quiet to unsettled. Chance active periods.
29 Sep 7 Quiet
30 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Unsettled.
Active conditions were observed at most latitudes 0-9UT and 21-24UT.
Minor Storm intervals observed throughout the UT day at high
latitudes. Expect Unsettled conditions day one with the chance
of isolated Active to Minor Storm intervals, mainly at high latitudes.
Conditions should decline to generally Quiet days two and three.
Recurrence suggests a weak coronal hole wind stream effect days
two to three but current solar imagery is not supportive.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal-fair Normal Poor
PCA Event : Began at 2250UT 23/09, Ended at 0250UT 27/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The proton event which began 23/2300UT ended 27/0430UT.
Expect gradual improvement in HF conditions at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Generally weak ionosphere due to proton event
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements /depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions mainly local day. Disturbed conditions at high latitudes.
The proton event which began 23/2300UT ended 27/0430UT. Expect
improving conditions Antarctic region. Strong enhancements observed
Equatorial/N Aus regions after local dawn 28 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 92300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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