[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 27 09:52:36 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 1446UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Active region 1302 remains the most significant feature
on the solar disk. This region has stretched in the E-W direction
and produced an M2 level flare at 26/1446UT. Regions 1303 and
1301 produced C-class flares over the day. Background X-ray flux
declined to B-class levels towards the end of the UT day as regions
1295 and 1303 rotate off the visible disk. Solar wind parameters
increased significantly after 12 UT following arrival of the
CME observed on 24 Sep. Solar wind velocity increased from 350
to 700 km/s over the second half of the UT day. The Bz component
of the IMF reached -30nT, but has settled to near-neutral values
over the last quarter of the UT day. Expect solar wind parameters
to remain disturbed next 1-2 days.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1151UT on
26 Sep.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
26/1140UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 27 21125564
Darwin 18 321----5
Townsville 28 22225564
Learmonth 39 22226665
Alice_Springs 27 21125564
Norfolk_Island 15 211----5
Gnangara 25 22114564
Camden 30 -1125564
Canberra 27 21125564
Hobart 15 211----5
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
Macquarie_Island 62 10026784
Casey 35 34435654
Davis 29 33445454
Mawson 59 33243686
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 42 (Unsettled)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 60
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1002 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 10 Unsettled to Active
28 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 25 September
and is current for interval 25-27 September. Active to major
storm levels observed at all latitudes following arrival of the
CME observed 24 Sep. IMF Bz showed strong fluctuations (+20 /
-30nT) after 12UT, settling to near-neutral values after 20UT.
Expect disturbed conditions day one with a chance of minor to
major storm intervals. Conditions should decline days two and
three. Mawson Cosray observatory observed a 4% Forbush decrease
at 26/21UT, which could indicate further significant geomagnetic
disturbance possible next 1-2 days. There were some gaps in IPS
geomagnetic data over the second half of the UT day due to system
problems.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 09 2011 2250UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values. Possible occasional
depressions to 20%..
28 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
29 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements /depressions observed mainly at
low latitudes. Disturbed conditions at high latitudes due to
significant geomagnetic activity. With solar activity increasing,
there is the chance of sudden disruptions to communications (short
wave fade-outs)at low to mid latitudes during local day. Expect
continuing disturbed ionospheric conditions at high latitudes
days one and two. There were some gaps in IPS ionospheric data
today due to system problems.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 44400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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