[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 26 09:35:53 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW
**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 24/2359UT possible lower West Pacific
M4.5 0233UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M7.4 0451UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 0706UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.1 0849UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 0937UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.7 1533UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1619UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.2 1658UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Flare producing regions were 1302 (N12E36), M4.4 at
0233UT, M7.4 at 0450UT, M3.1 at 0849UT,M3.7 at 1533UT and an
M2.2 at 1658UT, and region 1303 (S28W79) M1.0 at 24/2358UT and
an M1.5 at 0935UT. LASCO and STEREO observed several CMEs over
the period, none of which are expected to be geoeffective. ACE
data show solar wind parameters were undisturbed until around
1050 UT when there was a positive step in density and speed.
The IMF north-south component was briefly southward to about
-8nT with the wind speed increasing to 380 km/s. Solar wind
parameters are expected to be mildly disturbed over the next
three days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 25/1020UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Mostly quiet.
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22022212
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville 9 23232222
Learmonth 7 22032312
Alice_Springs 5 22022212
Norfolk_Island 4 22021111
Gnangara 6 21122222
Camden 5 22021212
Canberra 3 12021111
Hobart 3 12021201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
Macquarie_Island 1 01010100
Casey 11 34232222
Davis 9 23232222
Mawson 5 22121211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0001 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 20 Quiet to active.
27 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 25 September
and is current for interval 25-27 September. Chance of isolated
minor storm periods at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 09 2011 2250UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
12-17 UT. No data 18-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% 12-17UT.
Enhanced to 30% 05-10 and 19-22UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
16-18UT at Darwin. Enhancements to 30% 12-15 UT at
Darwin and 00-01, 09-13, 21-23UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionosphere at high latitudes. Mostly near predicted
monthly values to 40% enhanced. Proton event in progress,
increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
27 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values. Possible occasional
depressions to 20%..
28 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 23 September
and is current for interval 24-26 September (SWFs) . With solar
activity increasing, there is the chance of sudden disruptions
to communications (short wave fade-outs).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 48000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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