[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 29 09:32:27 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Active Region 1302 (N13W04) produced a C9 level flare
at 1232UT and an M1 level flare at 1328UT. There was a slow,
narrow W-directed CME observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 1350UT.
AR1302 maintains potential for isolated M to X class flares.
Solar wind speed remained mostly steady at 450-500 km/s, becoming
variable late in the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF sustained
moderate Southward bias (-5nT) between 02 and 15UT.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
28/1600UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 13 33423312
Darwin 15 33424313
Townsville 14 33433322
Learmonth 14 3343-322
Alice_Springs 13 33423312
Norfolk_Island 10 33422211
Gnangara 15 33424322
Camden 14 33433312
Canberra 12 33423302
Hobart 15 34433312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie_Island 20 34544301
Casey 12 33332322
Davis 25 34433454
Mawson 49 55633664
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 54 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 30 7443 4234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance Active intervals.
30 Sep 5 Quiet
01 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Unsettled.
Active intervals were observed at low to mid latitudes 3-15UT,
with isolated storm periods observed at high latitudes. A mild
energetic ion enhancement was observed in the solar wind after
16UT, which could be a precursor to elevated geomagnetic activity
over the next 1-2 days. Expect Unsettled conditions day one with
the chance of isolated Active to Minor Storm intervals, mainly
at high latitudes. Conditions should decline to generally Quiet
day 2. A small coronal hole now at solar central meridian may
produce mildly elevated solar wind parameters days 2-3.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : Began at 2250UT 23/09, Ended at 0250UT 27/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements observed Equatorial/N Aus regions
mainly local day. Night-time spread-F observed Hobart and Perth.
Generally weak ionospheric conditions observed at high latitudes.
Moderate MUF enhancements observed Equatorial/N Aus regions after
local dawn Sep 29.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 578 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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