[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 16 09:52:42 EST 2011 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Sep             17 Sep             18 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Ten C class flares were observed over the last 24 hours. 
The largest of these flares was a C4.6 flare from region 1297(S18W64) 
at 0029UT. A CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO images around 
22:30UT. Solar activity is expected to be Low with a chance of 
isolated M-class flares for the next 3 days. Over the last 24 
hours, the solar wind speed varied between 420-480 Km/s. Over 
the same period, the IMF Bz varied between +/-3nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to return to normal levels over the next 
24 hours. The earthward component of the CME observed on 14 September 
is likely to cause disturbance to the solar wind parameters on 
17 and 18 September.


Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1283 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 25 Sep.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111211
      Darwin               4   22111211
      Townsville           7   23212222
      Learmonth            5   22111221
      Alice_Springs        4   22111211
      Norfolk_Island       3   12101111
      Gnangara             5   22111222
      Camden               4   12111212
      Canberra             3   12100122
      Hobart               5   13111211
      Macquarie_Island     3   12120111
      Casey               11   34321222    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Sep     7    Quiet
17 Sep    18    Unsettled to Active
18 Sep    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours for the Australian region. Mostly Quiet conditions 
are expected for the next 24 hours. Conditions are expected to 
become more Active on 17 and 18 September due to the expected 
arrival the CME observed on 14 September. Active to Storm periods 
in Antarctica are likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Sep    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with 
periods of MUF enhancements over the Australian region. Mostly 
normal ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. MUFs are expected 
to be near monthly values over the next 3 days. Possible depressed 
periods for mid and high latitudes due to the increased geomagnetic 
activity for 17-18 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 504 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    66100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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