[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 11
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 17 09:55:21 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 142/96 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Numerous C class flares were observed over the last
24 hours, the largest one was a C9.3 from region 1290(S13W69)
at 1136UT. Solar activity is expected to be Low with a chance
of isolated M-class flares for the next 3 days. The solar wind
speed mostly varied between 460-400 Km/s and the IMF Bz stayed
close to normal values staying slightly positive for relatively
longer periods. A possible glancing blow from a CME observed
on 14 September is likely to cause disturbance to the solar wind
parameters on 17 and 18 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 21110111
Darwin 3 21110102
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 3 21011211
Alice_Springs 2 21000112
Norfolk_Island 2 21000111
Gnangara 5 22111212
Camden 1 11100101
Canberra 1 11000100
Hobart 2 11110101
Macquarie_Island 0 00000000
Casey 9 33321212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin 20 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1211 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 18 Unsettled to Active
18 Sep 12 Unsettled
19 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours with Unsettled periods for high latitudes. A possible
glancing blow from the CME observed on 14 September is expected
to increase the geomagnetic activity. Active periods and Storm
levels at high latitudes are likely for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 3 days. Possible CME effects may degrade HF conditions at
high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions were observed today with periods
of MUF enhancements over the Australian region. Mostly normal
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. MUFs are expected
to be near monthly values over the next 3 days. Possible depressed
periods for high latitudes due to the increased geomagnetic activity
over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 58500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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