[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 15 09:49:56 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: There have been several C class flares over the last
24 hours. The largest of these flares was a C9.2 flare from region
1297(S16W52) at 2051UT. Solar activity is expected to be Low
with a chance of isolated M-class flares for the next 3 days.
A hallo CME was observed in SOHO imagery at around 00UT on the
14th of September. STEREO imagery suggests this is directed earthward
but mainly to the north of the ecliptic plane. This is not expected
to be significantly geo-effective. Solar wind speed gradually
decreased from around 560Km/s to around 460 Km/s and the IMF
Bz mostly varied between +/-2nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed
is expected to further decrease as the coronal hole effect weakens.
There may be some possibility of strengthening in solar wind
stream late on 17 September due to the possible arrival of the
CME observed on 14 September.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1283 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 25 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22122011
Darwin 4 22211012
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 5 22122121
Alice_Springs 3 21011012
Norfolk_Island 3 22011011
Gnangara 6 22122122
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 2 11111011
Hobart 5 23112011
Macquarie_Island 3 12122001
Casey 9 3--32122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 17 4443 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 5 Quiet
16 Sep 5 Quiet
17 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Some minor depressed periods were observed for the AUS/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Mostly similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 581 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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