[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 10 10:39:31 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT **CORRECTED VERSION **
ISSUED AT 10/0030Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.7 0611UT possible lower Mid East/European
M1.2 1249UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the arrival of a CME
around 1130UT on 9 September. This is most likely the CME observed
in association with the flare late on 6 September. Solar region
1283 produced an M2-flare at 0611UT and an M1-flare at 1249UT
on 9 September, with the first of these flares associated with
a CME. Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests
that this CME is primarily directed in ecliptic plane and to
west. A glancing blow is possible from this CME late 11-12 September.
A coronal hole solar wind stream is also anticipated during this
period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 20 12115454
Darwin 20 12115454
Townsville 20 12225453
Learmonth 23 12115554
Alice Springs 22 12215553
Norfolk Island 16 22015443
Gnangara 18 11124454
Camden 18 11115453
Canberra 18 01015453
Hobart 19 01014554
Macquarie Island 12 02003-53
Casey 17 12314444
Mawson 22 2321455-
Davis 22 23325345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1200 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Sep 16 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased during the latter half
of 9 September due to the arrival of a CME around 1130UT. Primarily
Active to Minor Storm periods were observed with isolated Major
Storm periods observed at southern high latitude stations. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be predominantly Unsettled to Active
for the Australian region with some isolated storm periods at
high latitudes for 10 September. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly Unsettled to Quiet for most of 11 September, with
activity possibly increasing again late on 11 September into
12 September due to anticipated coronal hole and CME effects.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 09 Sep, a weak (33nT) impulse
was observed at 1243UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to fair during the
last 24 hours. HF conditions are expected to be moderately degraded
at times over the next few days as the result of recent geomagnetic
activity. SWFs are possible over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 40 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 50 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 15%
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near predicted values to depressed
10-20% at times during the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to
be depressed at times over the next few days as the result of
recent geomagnetic activity. SWFs are possible over the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 37300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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