[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 11
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 10 09:55:42 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **
YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 1249UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the arrival of a CME
around 1130UT on 9 September. This is most likely the CME observed
in association with the flare late on 6 September. Solar region
1283 produced an M2-flare at 0611UT and an M1-flare at 1249UT
on 9 September, with the first of these flares associated with
a CME. Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests
that this CME is primarily directed in ecliptic plane and to
west. A glancing blow is possible from this CME late 11-12 September.
A coronal hole solar wind stream is also anticipated during this
period.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
09/0525UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 18 34433005
Darwin - --------
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 4 1211----
Alice 7 1221---3
nlk 7 1231----
Island - --------
Gnangara 4 1112----
Camden 5 1111---3
Canberra 8 2321----
Hobart 1 0101----
Macquarie 18 34433005
cay 11 11113225
msn 39 343380024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1200 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 24 active
11 Sep 16 active
12 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the
forecast period.
A weak (33nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1243UT on 09 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal-Fair Fair Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
11 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 40 Mildly depressed (<15%) to near predicted monthly
values
11 Sep 45 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
12 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 7 September
and is current for interval 8-10 September (SWFs) .
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 37300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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