[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 9 10:19:17 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ** CORRECTED VERSION **
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/3B 07/2238UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
M6/1N 1546UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was High with X1 and M6 flares observed
over the last 24 hours. Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite
imagery suggests that CMEs associated with recent flare activity
appear to be mostly directed up out of the ecliptic plane and
are therefore not expected to be very geoeffective. However,
there is the chance of a glancing impact from these CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 3 22200002
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 1 11110001
Norfolk Island 1 11100010
Gnangara 3 22011101
Camden 1 11100000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Casey 4 23211001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3111 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 18 Unsettled to Active
10 Sep 12 Unsettled
11 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet
to unsettled over the next few days with the chance of active
periods and storm levels at high latitudes due to a possible
glancing impact from recent CME activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible CME effects may degrade high-latitude HF conditions
at times over the next 3 days, otherwise conditions are expected
to be mostly normal. SWFs are possible over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 7 September
and is current for interval 8-10 September (SWFs) Observed MUFs
were mostly near predicted values over the last 24 hours. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted values over
the next 3 days, with mild depressions possible at times at high
latitudes due to possible CME effects. SWFs are possible over
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 69400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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