[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 11 09:54:12 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SN 0740UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds remained mildly elevated during the
past 24 hours following the arrival of a CME around 1130UT on
9 September. Solar region 1283 produced an M1-flare at 0740UT
on 10 September. An erupting filament was observed in the north-west
quadrant around 03UT on 10 September. Analysis of STEREO and
SOHO satellite imagery suggests that CMEs associated with the
filament and flare activity are primarily directed either out
of the ecliptic plane to the north or to west and are therefore
not expected to be geoeffective. However, there is still the
small chance of a glancing blow from recent CME activity over
the next few days. A coronal hole solar wind stream is anticipated
to become geoeffective late on 11 September and into 12 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 18 43442333
Darwin 18 33432434
Townsville 20 43442433
Learmonth 29 53453444
Alice Springs 18 43432433
Norfolk Island 15 43432322
Gnangara 21 53332344
Camden 17 43432333
Canberra 18 43442333
Hobart 17 44332333
Macquarie Island 26 54452334
Casey 21 53441243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 36 1100 5755
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 12 Unsettled
12 Sep 16 Unsettled to Active
13 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly Unsettled to
Active over the Australian region during 10 September, with some
storm periods at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be predominantly Unsettled with the chance of isolated Active
levels and storm periods at high latitudes for 11 September as
CME effects abate. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase
again slightly with the anticipated arrival of a coronal hole
wind stream late in the UT day of 11 September into 12 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be slightly degraded at
times over the next few days as the result of recent geomagnetic
activity. SWFs are possible over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
12 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
13 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be depressed at times over the
next few days as the result of recent geomagnetic activity. SWFs
are possible over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 261000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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