[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 14 10:26:10 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: C-class flare activity was observed from a number of
solar regions during 13 October. Further C-class flare activity
is possible over the next few days with the small chance of M-class
flares. CME activity observed in STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery
at approximately 01UT on 13 October appears to be associated
with a backside event and is not expected to be geoeffective.
Solar wind speeds remained below 400 km/s during the past 24
hours. Solar wind speeds may increase mildly late on 15 October
and into 16 October due to an anticipated coronal hole solar
wind stream.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1302 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 18 Oct. Also, previously M-flare(s)
producing region 1305 is due for return to the north-east limb
around this date.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22112111
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 22012112
Alice Springs 3 12011112
Norfolk Island 3 21011111
Gnangara 5 22112112
Camden 4 22112110
Canberra 4 12112112
Hobart 3 12122100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 12221000
Casey 9 34221112
Davis 15 33------
Mawson 8 34222001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1221 2131
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 5 Quiet
15 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet levels have been observed during 13 October for
the Australian region with an isolated Active period at Antarctic
regions. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next few
days. Isolated Unsettled levels are possible late 15 and 16 October
due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream with the
chance of Active levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during
13 October and are expected to be mostly normal to good for the
next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs over the next
few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 80 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Oct 80 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Oct 75 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced during 13 October. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values to enhanced for the next few days.
There is the small chance of SWFs over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 75000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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