[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 13 10:36:10 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: C-class flare activity was observed from a number of
solar regions during 12 October. Further C-class flare activity
is possible over the next few days with the small chance of M-class
flares. Solar wind speeds remained below 450 km/s during the
past 24 hours and are presently below 400 km/s. Solar wind speeds
may increase mildly late on 15 October and into 16 October due
to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22211212
Darwin 5 22211212
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 6 22221222
Alice Springs 5 22211212
Norfolk Island 4 11210122
Gnangara 5 21211221
Camden 6 22311211
Canberra 4 12300211
Hobart 6 22311211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 8 11520110
Casey 12 34421222
Davis 14 33422---
Mawson 20 24322163
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0010 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 6 Quiet
14 Oct 5 Quiet
15 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet levels have been observed during 12 October for
the Australian region with some isolated Active to Storm levels
observed for Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected
for the next few days. Isolated Unsettled levels are possible
late 15 October due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind
stream with the chance of Active levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during
12 October and are expected to be mostly normal to good for the
next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs over the next
few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 90 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
14 Oct 90 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
15 Oct 90 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced during 12 October. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values to enhanced for the next few days.
There is the small chance of SWFs over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 51200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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