[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 12 10:20:52 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Most of the active regions on the visible solar disk
are magnetically simple and not expected to produce any significant
flare activity. C-class flare activity is still possible over
the next few days with the small chance of M-class flares should
any of the regions grow in complexity. ACE satellite solar wind
parameters suggest a coronal hole solar wind stream impacted
the Earth in the latter half of the UT day of 11 October with
solar wind speeds reaching approximately 450 km/s. Solar wind
speeds may continue to increase into 12 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11112211
Darwin 4 11112211
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 5 21112212
Alice Springs 4 11112211
Norfolk Island 3 21102111
Gnangara 4 11112211
Camden 4 11112211
Canberra 2 01101210
Hobart 3 11102211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00001100
Casey 7 22331211
Davis 10 22422321
Mawson 9 11311333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Oct 6 Quiet
14 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet levels have been observed during 11 October
for Australian and Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet conditions
are expected for the next few days. Isolated Unsettled levels
are possible during 12 October due to a coronal hole solar wind
stream with the chance of Active levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during
11 October and are expected to be mostly normal to good for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 85 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Oct 85 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Oct 85 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced during 11 October. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values to enhanced for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 51100 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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