[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 15 10:25:42 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z OCTOBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed during
14 October. Further C-class flare activity is possible over the
next few days with the small chance of M-class flares. Further
CME activity observed in STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery during
14 October appears to be associated with backside events and
is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds predominantly
remained below 420 km/s during the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speeds may increase mildly late on 15 October and into 16 October
due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1302 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 18 Oct. Also, previously M-flare(s)
producing region 1305 is due for return to the north-east limb
around this date.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 2 11100021
Learmonth 2 21000011
Norfolk Island 2 21100011
Camden 1 11000020
Canberra 0 10000010
Hobart 1 01100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Davis 8 33222221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1202 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels were observed during 14 October for the
Australian region with an Unsettled periods at Antarctic regions.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next few days. Isolated
Unsettled levels are possible late 15 and 16 October due to an
anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream with the chance of
Active levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal to good during
14 October and are expected to be mostly normal to good for the
next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs over the next
few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 80 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Oct 80 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Oct 80 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been mostly near predicted monthly values
to enhanced during 14 October. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values to enhanced for the next few days.
There is the small chance of SWFs over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 40100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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