[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 11 issued 2322 UT on 25 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 26 10:22:12 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with a C3 level flare in AR1359
(N16W65) at 0345UT and a C2 level flare also in AR 1359 at 2158UT
with an associated Type II radio sweep. Estimated shock speed
700-900 km/s. Solar wind speed was steady at ~400km/s and the
Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT with no extended periods
of negative bias.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22211112
Darwin 6 22211123
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 4 21211102
Norfolk_Island 4 22101112
Camden 5 22211112
Canberra 3 22200012
Hobart 4 22201112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 3 22100002
Casey 20 45532222
Mawson 13 44221124
Davis 14 43422232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1001 3112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 7 Quiet
27 Nov 7 Quiet
28 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid latitudes
was Quiet. Conditions at high latitudes were Quiet with isolated
Unsettled to Active intervals. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
next two days with the chance of isolated minor disturbances.
A weak coronal hole wind stream should become geoeffective by
day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
No data after 05UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-40% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Townsville no data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20-30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov 150 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
27 Nov 150 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
28 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
COMMENT: Strong to moderate MUF enhancements observed at Equatorial/N
Aus stations. Moderate enhancements observed at S Aus stations.
Expect similar conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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