[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 11 issued 2346 UT on 26 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 27 10:46:18 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: A C1.2/C1.5 flare sequence occurred in AR1353 (N08W46)/
AR1357 (W limb) at 0710/0824UT. The sequence appears to be associated
with an eruptive filament channel W of AR 1353 first visible
at 0644UT. A semi-halo CME is first visible in LASCO C3 imagery
after 0806UT. CME velocity is approximately 700km/s with a
predominantly W-directed component. Following this sequence, energetic
particle flux levels incresed by two orders of magnitude over the next
few hours. The proton event remains in progress at the time of
report issue. A shock impact from the CME is likely at Earth
late on the UT day Nov 28 to early Nov 29. Solar wind velocity
declined slightly over the UT day and the Bz component of the
IMF showed minor fluctuations about neutral. There is a possibility
of C- to M-class flare activity next three days.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1339 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 28 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 21111123
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 4 10121113
Norfolk_Island 7 2-111114
Camden 4 11112122
Canberra 3 10111022
Hobart 5 21211122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 1 11000011
Casey 15 34432223
Mawson 11 22222334
Davis 13 33332323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2210 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid latitudes
was Quiet. Conditions at high latitudes were Quiet with isolated
Unsettled to Active intervals. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
day one. A weak coronal hole wind stream should become geoeffective
by day two. A shock impact from a CME observed early on 26 Nov
is anticipated late day two to early day three. Following the
impact Active to Minor Storm geomagnetic conditions are possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 26 11 2011 1145UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Poor HF propagation conditions observed at high latitudes
second half of the UT day Nov 26 due to elevated proton levels.
Proton event remains in progress at the time of report issue.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25-40% during local night.
Townsville no data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20-40%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values 00-12UT.
Absorption observed 12-24UT.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
28 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
29 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Strong to moderate MUF enhancements observed at
Equatorial/Aus stations. Increased absorption observed second half
of the UT day Continental Antarctic stations, but not extending to
Macquarie Island/S ocean region. Expect continuing good
ionospheric support Equatorial/N Aus regions. Expect poor support
Antarctic region day one, with the chance of disturbances
extending to S Aus region late day two and into day three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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