[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 11 issued 2335 UT on 24 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 25 10:35:23 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. LASCO
C3 imagery shows a narrow NW directed CME first visible after
0142UT. The CME appears to be associated with a small eruptive
prominence on the NW solar limb. Geoeffective consequences Nov
26-27 are likely to be brief and minor. Solar wind speed was
relatively steady at 360-400 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF
fluctuated +/-5nT over the UT day with periods of sustained Southward
bias during the mid and late parts of the day. A C2 level flare
is in progress at the time of report issue.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 22133122
Darwin 9 -2223223
Townsville 9 22233222
Learmonth 9 32123223
Norfolk_Island 6 11123122
Camden 7 12133122
Canberra 7 11133122
Hobart 8 22133122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie_Island - --------
Casey 26 55533233
Mawson 22 43323236
Davis 15 33334233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 7 Quiet
26 Nov 5 Quiet
27 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid latitudes
was Quiet with Unsettled periods 09-15UT. Conditions at high
latitudes were unsettled with isolated Active to Minor Storm
intervals. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days with
the chance of isolated minor disturbances.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
No data available after 16UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-40%.
Townsville no data available.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
26 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
27 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Strong to moderate MUF enhancements observed at Equatorial/N
Aus stations. Moderate enhancements observed at S Aus stations.
Expect similar conditions next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list