[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 11 issued 2335 UT on 23 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 24 10:35:19 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Only minor C-class flares observed today. LASCO C3 imagery
shows a NW-directed semi-halo CME after 22/23UT. This was associated
with a filament eruption in the NW quadrant visible in EIT imagery
23/20-22UT. STEREO imagery suggests the CME was directed mostly
above the ecliptic plane. Following this event there was a second
CME visible in STEREO imagery. This CME was a far-side, north
directed event. Solar activity is expected to remain low, with
a chance of C- to M-class activity mainly from region 1356. Solar
wind speed was steady at 350 to 400 km/s. The Bz component of
the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22212112
Darwin 7 32222212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 31212212
Norfolk_Island 4 22111112
Camden 5 22212112
Canberra 5 22212111
Hobart 5 22212112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 5 32112011
Casey 23 35543233
Mawson 18 44322244
Davis 17 34433233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2122 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 7 Quiet
25 Nov 7 Quiet
26 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes. Conditions at high latitudes were unsettled with isolated
Active intervals. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days
with the chance of minor disturbance days one or two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 10% 18-21UT.
Enhanced by 20-40% at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Townsville no data after 06UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Sydney no data after 16UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
25 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
26 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Strong to moderate MUF enhancements observed at Equatorial/N
Aus stations. Moderate enhancements observed at S Aus stations.
Expect similar conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 44900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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