[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 11 issued 2323 UT on 22 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 23 10:23:44 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Active region 1356 (N15E42) produced minor C-class flares
at 0404UT and 0954UT. An East-directed CME was observed in LASCO
C3 imagery 0642-1230UT. This was possibly associated with the
earlier C-class flare or a disappearing solar filament in the
Southeast quadrant. The event is unlikely to be geoeffective.
Solar wind speed increased slightly from 300 to 380 km/s over
the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22223212
Darwin 9 32223213
Townsville 10 22233223
Learmonth 9 32223203
Norfolk_Island 7 22223212
Camden 7 22223212
Canberra 7 22223212
Hobart 7 22223212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 13 22335301
Casey 23 45542223
Mawson 14 33333422
Davis 19 34443422
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra -- (N/A )
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1111 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 5 Quiet
24 Nov 7 Quiet
25 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at low to
mid latitudes with isolated Unsettled intervals mainly 12-15UT
and 21-24UT. Conditions at high latitudes were unsettled with
isolated Active intervals. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next
three days with the chance of minor disturbance days two or three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
24 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
25 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Strong to moderate MUF enhancements observed at Equatorial/N
Aus stations. Moderate enhancements observed at S Aus stations.
Expect similar conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 280 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 21100 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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