[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 11 issued 2331 UT on 21 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 22 10:31:16 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Only a few minor C-class flares observed today. AR1356
(N14E51) increased in size over the period. AR 1354 (S17E17)
showed some decay. Solar wind speed remained steady at around
300 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF was moderately Southward
over most of the UT day, returning to neutral/northward late
in the day. Expect low solar activity next three days with a
chance of C- to M- class flares, mainly from AR 1356.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22111113
Darwin 6 22112123
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 4 21011113
Norfolk_Island 3 11111112
Camden 4 22111112
Canberra 4 11111103
Hobart 5 12111203
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 3 11112201
Casey 9 33222123
Mawson 18 24222216
Davis 12 23233323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 5 Quiet
23 Nov 5 Quiet
24 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Despite a moderately negative Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field over most of the UT day, observed
geomagnetic conditions were Quiet. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
23 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
24 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced MUF's observed throughout the region.
Strong enhancements at some low latitude stations. Moderate to
strong enhancements at mid latitude stations, tending towards
normal conditions after local dawn today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 15600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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