[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 20 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 21 10:29:51 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Only C-class flares, mostly from regions 1354 (S17,E30),
1356 (N14,E69) and 1357 (N17,W18). Two CMEs, the first was observed
in LASCO C2 images at 1424 UT from the north-east limb and may
be associated with region 1356. This CME is not likely to be
geo-effective. The latter CME was observed in LASCO images at
1512 UT and was probably associated with a filament eruption
in the north-west quadrant seen in SDO images from around 1400
UT. STEREO A images indicate material ejected towards the equatorial
plane from this CME, and based on available images, could
be geo-effective in five to six days. ACE data show the solar
wind was undisturbed. Wind parameters are expected to be mostly
undisturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11110112
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 6 22121222
Learmonth 2 10110112
Norfolk_Island 4 31010112
Camden 3 11110122
Canberra 3 01110122
Hobart 3 11110112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 0 00000011
Casey 5 22221112
Mawson 4 10101132
Davis 8 22122332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 60 (Unsettled)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 5 Quiet
22 Nov 5 Quiet
23 Nov 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 177
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-05, 19-23 UT.
Enhanced 20-45% at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 25-50% at Townsville and 22-23 UT at
Darwin. No Darwin data 00-21 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly 25-50% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly enhanced 20-45%.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 150 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
22 Nov 150 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
23 Nov 150 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 38500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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