[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 11 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 20 10:30:07 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Nine, low level, C-class flares, mostly from regions
1354 (S16,E44) and 1355 (N14,E60). Two, weak CMEs from the north-west
limb were observed in LASCO images but are not expected to be
geo-effective. ACE data show the solar wind was undisturbed.
Wind parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed over the
forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 4 22111121
Learmonth 2 21010001
Norfolk_Island 1 110001-1
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 0 00000000
Casey 9 34321011
Mawson 1 21001000
Davis 5 22222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 5 Quiet
21 Nov 5 Quiet
22 Nov 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 166
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-04, 20-23 UT.
Enhanced 20-40% at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 20-50% at Townsville. Near predicted
monthly values at Darwin 00-05 UT. No Darwin
data 06-23 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly 20-45% above predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly 20-45% above predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
21 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
22 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 56000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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