[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 18 Nov 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 19 10:29:08 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 144/98

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Nov             20 Nov             21 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Four, low level, C-class flares from regions 1346 (S17,W17), 
1353 (N08,E59) and 1354 (S15,E56). The Sun became active from 
17/2036 to ~0430 UT with a number of CMEs. IN LASCO images these 
appear to have originated from the limbs or far side; none are 
expected to be geo-effective. SDO images show a filament lifting 
from the south-east limb at 1646 UT. ACE data show the solar 
wind was undisturbed. Wind parameters are expected to be mostly 
undisturbed over the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet. 

Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101111
      Darwin               5   22212112
      Townsville           5   12212221
      Learmonth            4   21112102
      Norfolk_Island       3   21101111
      Camden               3   12101111
      Canberra             1   11101001
      Hobart               2   11201101
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
      Macquarie_Island     1   11100000
      Casey               14   44422122
      Mawson               7   23212113
      Davis                9   33322221
 
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0020 1011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Nov     6    Quiet 
20 Nov     6    Quiet 
21 Nov     6    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Nov   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-10, 18-23 UT.
      Enhanced to 45% at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced to 40%. Near predicted monthly values 00,
      04-07,22-23 UT at Darwin. No data Darwin 01-03 UT
      and Townsville 00-07 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly 20-40% enhanced. No Hobart data 15-19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly 20-40% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
20 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
21 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 428 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    79800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list