[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 17 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 18 10:29:30 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Ten C-class flares with the largest a C6.0 at 0727 UT
from region 1346 (S18,W00). A CME was observed in LASCO images
around 2030 UT on the north-east limb. Insufficient images at
this time to determine the path of this CME. Available ACE data
show the solar wind was undisturbed. Wind parameters may become
disturbed 18 Nov, if the 14 Nov CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet. Quiet to active
levels at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21201111
Darwin 6 21211312
Townsville 5 21211221
Learmonth 4 21212111
Norfolk_Island 3 21200121
Camden 3 -2201111
Canberra 2 11201010
Hobart 4 22201111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 2 11200011
Casey 15 44431222
Mawson 13 33322143
Davis 13 3432322-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1100 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled
19 Nov 6 Quiet
20 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Possible activity 18 Nov due to CME effects, isolated
active conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov 150
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. No data 09-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 15-25% 00-17 UT, then near predicted
monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
At Darwin, near predicted monthly values 00-08 UT,
then enhanced 20-40%. Enhanced 20-30% 00-08 UT, then
enhanced 40-60% 09-17 UT at Townsville. No data at
Townsville 18-23 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly enhanced 25-45%. Near predicted monthly values
00-10 UT at Perth and 01-06, 15-18 UT at Learmonth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
19 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
20 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 15 November
and is current for interval 16-18 November (SWFs) . Chance of
SWFs on daylight sectors of HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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