[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 16 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 17 10:29:28 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Eleven C-class flares from regions 1348 and 1346 (S18,E14).
Region 1348 has now passed over the limb. LASCO and STEREO images
show there were a number of CMEs appearing to originate from
the north-west; none are expected to impact Earth. Available
ACE data show the solar wind was mildly disturbed. Wind parameters
may become disturbed, if the CME impacts, late 17 Nov, or 18
Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet. Active to
minor storm levels at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 22110021
Darwin 7 32221122
Townsville 3 21110021
Learmonth 4 22120021
Norfolk_Island 3 21110111
Camden 4 22111021
Canberra 2 21100021
Hobart 3 22110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 1 11000010
Casey 25 46542122
Mawson 9 43211122
Davis 13 44322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 0032 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
18 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled
19 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Possible activity beginning late on 17 Nov due to CME
effects, isolated active conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 04-13 UT. Enhanced
to 35% at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-07 and 19-22 UT.
Enhanced to 35% at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
00-06, 22-23 UT, then enhanced to 45% at Darwin.
Enhanced 20-40% at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced 20-40%. Near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced 00-10 UT Learmonth and Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
18 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
19 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 15 November
and is current for interval 16-18 November (SWFs) . Chance of
SWFs on daylight sectors of HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 93400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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