[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 15 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 16 10:29:10 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0913UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.9 1244UT possible lower European
M1.1 2236UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Region 1348 (N20,W84) and region 1346 (S18,E27) appear
to be the major sources of the M and five C-class flares. Two
CMEs were observed in STEREO and LASCO images (one back-side,
one north-west), neither are considered likely to impact Earth.
The CME observed 14/~2140 UT may be geo-effective. Available
ACE data show the solar wind slightly disturbed with the IMF
Bz component ranging between -6/+5 nT and speed between 380 and
440 km/s. Wind parameters may become somewhat disturbed late
on 17, or 18 Nov if the 14 Nov CME impacts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet. Unsettled to
minor storm periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 11222112
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 5 11222112
Learmonth 6 21223102
Norfolk_Island 4 11121212
Camden 5 12222112
Canberra 5 11222112
Hobart 6 12223112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 6 11233201
Casey 19 35522223
Mawson 11 12332314
Davis 16 24443223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 5 Quiet
17 Nov 8 Quiet. Possible active levels late.
18 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels possible.
COMMENT: Possible activity beginning late on 17 Nov due to CME
effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov 155
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
00-10, 23 UT, otherwise 35-45% enhanced.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
00-11, 18-23 UT. Enhanced 30-50% at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
00-15, 22-23 UT. Enhanced 30-55% at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly enhanced 20-45%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 45% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
17 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
18 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 15 November
and is current for interval 16-18 November (SWFs) . Chance of
SWFs on daylight sectors of HF circuits.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 28000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list