[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 14 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 15 10:29:06 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Only C-class flares from regions 1348 (N19,W70) and
1347 (N09,E31) with rapid growth in region 1348. STEREO images
show a CME between 1725 and 1909 UT erupting from the northern
hemisphere and out of the equatorial plane. Another CME erupted
before 2140 UT. The former CME is not likely to be geo-effective,
while there are insufficient images at this time to determine
the path of the latter CME. SDO images show a filament eruption
in the north-east quadrant around 1638 UT, possibly associated
with the first CME. There is also brightening around the same
time as the latter CME in the south-west quadrant. Solar wind
parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed over the forecast
period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet. Unsettled to
active periods early at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 12100001
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 2 12100011
Learmonth 2 12110001
Norfolk_Island 2 21100102
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 02100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 0 01000000
Casey 11 34332012
Mawson 2 22100001
Davis 8 24222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 0 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 5 Quiet
16 Nov 5 Quiet
17 Nov 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 158
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
25% 00-07, 13-14 UT and enhancements to 45% 15-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced to 25% 00-05 UT. Enhanced to 30% 08-18 UT.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly 20-45% enhanced.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced 20-40%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly 20-50% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
16 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
17 Nov 115 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Chance of SWFs on daylight sectors of HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 36700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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