[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 11 issued 2330 UT on 09 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 10 10:30:23 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1340UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: SDO images show brightening in the vicinity of region
1342 (N17,E42) near the time of an M1.1 flare at 1335 UT. The
SDO images also show events ~0844 UT in the south-east quadrant
and in the north-east quadrant ~1529 UT. CMEs are observed in
STEREO and LASCO images around 0900 UT and 1340 UT and are likely
to be associated with the above events. Both CMEs are expected
to be geo-effective. ACE data show solar wind parameters were
mostly undisturbed. Solar wind parameters are expected to be
mostly undisturbed on 10 Nov although there may be a late increase
in activity due to the ~1529 UT CME. Wind parameters are expected
to remain disturbed 11 and 12 Nov due to CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21110012
Darwin 12 32------
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 7 20------
Norfolk_Island 2 11100012
Camden - --------
Canberra 1 10------
Hobart 1 11110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 7 22-----2
Casey 21 4------3
Mawson 7 22-----2
Davis 7 23222221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 103 (Major storm)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 98 (Minor storm)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2221 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 8 Quiet
11 Nov 20 Unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm levels.
12 Nov 15 Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
11 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
12 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 15-25% 00-10, 23 UT. Enhanced 30-50% 11-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 15-30% 00-05 and 10-20 UT. Near predicted
monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 15-25% 00-14 UT, then enhanced 25-50%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
11 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
12 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
COMMENT: Sudden ionospheric disturbances possible on daylight
sectors of HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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