[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 08 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 9 10:29:21 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 181/134
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
two C-class flares, the largest being a C2 from region 1339 (N19W06)
which is gradually declining. Further C-class events are likely
over the next 3 days, with the chance of an M-class flare. The
solar wind speed increased gradually from ~350km/s to ~400km/s.
Until ~16UT, IMF Bz varied from -8nT to +7nT, with some sustained
southward excursions. Since then it has fluctuated between +/-5nT.
A CME first observed at 07/2348 in LASCO imagery is not expected
to be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 33213211
Darwin 7 32222212
Townsville 7 --313211
Learmonth 11 43223212
Norfolk Island 7 22213212
Camden 8 32313211
Canberra 6 33212101
Hobart 8 23313210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 12 22414400
Casey 18 45432222
Mawson 15 44323322
Davis 20 44533322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 70 (Active)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0300 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 5 Quiet
10 Nov 5 Quiet
11 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours, with Active to Minor Storm periods in Antarctica.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 125 10 to 30% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov 120 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov 120 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFS were observed over the last 24 hours.
Enhanced conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 37500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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