[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 11 issued 2337 UT on 07 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 8 10:37:55 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 182/135
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: X-ray flux was at C-class levels today. Regions 1339(N18E05)
and 1338(S13W12) were the source of the C-class flares. Region
1339 still maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration. This
region is expected to continue producing C-class flares with
a high chance of M-class activity. Solar wind parameters were
undisturbed over the reporting period. These parameters are expected
to be mostly undisturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet with isolated Unsettled
periods.
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 21111322
Darwin 7 22221322
Townsville 5 21211311
Learmonth 7 22221322
Norfolk Island 5 31110221
Camden 4 11111311
Canberra 4 10000223
Hobart 3 11201211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 01101000
Casey 9 24321122
Mawson 5 12221121
Davis 10 23322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 5 Quiet
09 Nov 5 Quiet
10 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours with isolated Unsettled periods. Mostly Quiet conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 144
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
09 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
10 Nov 125 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 6 November
and is current for interval 7-9 November (SWFs) Enhanced MUFS
observed for all AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Mostly
normal ionospheric support for the Antarctic region. Mostly normal
conditions are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 298 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 20000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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