[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 11 issued 2329 UT on 06 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 7 10:29:19 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 0103UT possible lower West Pacific
M1/SN 0635UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 177/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Regions 1339 (N20E20) and 1338 (S14E02) produced the
nine C-class flares with 1339 producing the two M-class flares.
Region 1339 is now in decline although retains a complex magnetic
configuration with the chance of X flares. No CMEs were observed.
ACE data show solar wind parameters were undisturbed. Wind parameters
are expected to be mostly undisturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to unsettled.
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11112212
Darwin 6 22112213
Townsville 5 21012213
Learmonth 8 22122313
Norfolk_Island 6 31112212
Camden 4 11012212
Canberra 2 00001202
Hobart 2 01101202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 0 00000001
Casey 12 25322212
Mawson 4 21112202
Davis 8 23222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 20 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2111 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 5 Quiet
08 Nov 5 Quiet
09 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-50%
13-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-40%
09-16 and 22-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 05 UT then
enhanced 20-50%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly 15-35% enhanced. No Hobart data 00-20 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
08 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
09 Nov 115 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 6 November
and is current for interval 7-9 November (SWFs) . Chance of sudden
ionospheric disturbances on daylight sectors of HF circuits over
forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 37300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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