[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 11 issued 2354 UT on 10 Nov 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 11 10:54:19 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: There have been several C class flares over the last
24 hours. The largest of these flares was a C6.0 flare from region
1339(N19W33) at 1831UT. Solar activity is expected to be Low
with a chance of isolated M-class flares for the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed varied mostly between 340-400 Km/s over
the UT day. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT with some prolonged
southwards periods in the later half of the UT day. A possible
glancing blow from the CME activity observed on November 9 may
elevate the wind speed and density during the later half of November
11 or early on 12 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21110112
Darwin 5 21211222
Townsville 4 21111112
Learmonth 5 21211222
Norfolk Island 3 1--10122
Camden 2 21100111
Canberra 3 31000111
Hobart 3 21110111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 10010001
Casey 10 24322222
Mawson 11 21112253
Davis 10 22322242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 15 Quiet to Active with storm periods at high latitudes.
12 Nov 25 Unsettled to Minor Storm.
13 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 9 November
and is current for interval 10-12 November Predominately Quiet
conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. Unsettled to
active conditions with storm periods at high latitudes might
occur from late on 11 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 3 days. Possible CME effects may degrade HF conditions at
high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 139
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 66
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
12 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFS observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial and
Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Conditions in Southern
AUS/NZ/ Antarctic regions could be disturbed next 3 days due
to the anticipated geomagnetic activity associated with the CME
of November 9.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 66600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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