[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 20 09:36:07 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous day. A
long duration B3 flare occured at 0350 UT with an associated
limb CME seen in LASCO and STEREO imagery. The bulk of the ejected
mass appears to be directed northward, however a glancing blow
from the edge of this ejection may strike the earth in 3-4 days.
The solar wind speed returned to quiescent levels of around 380
km/s as the recent coronal hole high speed stream rotated away.
All regions on disc have very low flare probabilities. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low to Low over the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain at normal levels,
with possible increase in speed late on the 22nd due to the CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11111000
Darwin 2 11211001
Townsville 1 11111000
Learmonth 2 12111000
Canberra 1 01110000
Hobart 2 11111100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2211 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 5 Quiet
21 May 5 Quiet
22 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at low and mid latitudes
and Quiet with isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes.
Conditions are expected to be Quiet for the next three days with
possible mildly disturbed conditions late on the 22nd.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by up to 20% between 03-15UT,
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by up to 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 35 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
21 May 40 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
22 May 40 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
at times.
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed during local
daytime, with some depressed periods. MUF depressions of up to
20% were seen during local night across a range of stations.
Daytime depressions are possible over the next few days as
MUFs are trending down. Nightime depressions are expected for
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 83800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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