[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 21 09:31:06 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MAY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous day. The
solar wind speed diminished from 380-340 km/s with the IMF Bz
fluctuating between +/- 4nT. No large or magnetically complex
regions are on the disc. Activity is expected to remain Very
Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain at the current slow levels for another day or two. A
possible glancing blow from the CME observed around 4UT on
May 19th may elevate the wind speed and density during the later
half of the 22nd or early on the 23rd. A weak coronal hole is
expected to mildly elevate the wind speed on the 23rd.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Darwin 1 11011001
Townsville 1 10101001
Learmonth 0 10000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1011 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 5 Quiet
22 May 7 Quiet
23 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet. Conditions are expected
to remain Quiet for the next 3 days with possible isolated Unsettled
periods on the 22nd and 23rd due to a possible glancing blow
from a CME on the 22nd and a weak coronal hole wind stream arriving
on the 23rd.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 10-20% over the UT day.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 May 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 May 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUF depressions between 10-20% were observed for extended
periods across the Australian region. These conditions are expected
to continue over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 56200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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